Sunday, 12 March 2017

[Analysis] What made this 5 State Elections Results special ?

11th of March 2017 was kind of a historic day in Indian Politics as in this day 5 States Election results was announced, the reason it was most important because UttarPradesh, the biggest democratic State of India was on the line and wave from UttarPradesh decides on which way Indian politics will move on. The mammoth support to BJP in UttarPardesh and Uttarakhand and despite of people underestimated Congress they managed to won Punjab and leads in terms of votes in Goa, Manipur. 

There was a huge anti incumbency in Punjab for last 2 - 3 years was enough to proof that a change is coming, Intellectuals may have figure out wrong may thought that history of Delhi will repeat in Punjab but Punjab is not Delhi and such naive analysis is nothing more then a propaganda which make Governments in paper and not in reality. Election was kind of formality in Punjab to determine who will be the next Chief of the State, if Congress is back in Punjab then its due to Captain Amrinder Singh's effort and the way he led the entire campaign from the front also the way he worked constantly in Punjab's grassroots and made sure that his party returns. Interesting thing in the results was that Captain Amrinder lost in "Lambi" constituency against Former CM Parkash Singh Badal though he won from his conventional "Patiala" Seat which ensures him to return as a winner for his party to takeover the State for the 2nd time, Former Deputy CM Sukhbir Singh Badal too won from "Jalalabad" and his Brother in Law Bikram Singh Majithia won from "Majitha" indicated that anti incumbency may be was there against the Akali + BJP Government but people also voted in the favor of that leadership. It will be now quite interesting to see the "Battle of Punjab" now.

When take on Goa's results it may not gone to the favor of BJP but its due to their leadership collapse and not against Government, their allies partner and RSS ideology gone against the defending party, all this started when Manohar Parrikar moved to Central Government as a Defense Minister and in his absence party struggled themselves and lost the balance on peoples expectation, for Goa as well intellectuals of Delhi thought for a wave like Capital of India but it was not more then a passing shower which was not even considered. Similarly in Manipur though BJP did well but there was no serious anti incumbency tats why despite the number was short Congress still managed to remain the number 1 party of the State in terms of the Vote and interestingly people extended their support to Ibobi Singh who won the election with a good margin but his opponent "Iron Lady" Irom Sharmila managed to get less then 100 votes which is lesser then "Nota" votes of Thoubal constituency who recently joined election after her 16 years long fight for AFSPA, no doubt its a heart breaking but its a sad reality of Indian Politics as if the fight was in Delhi not in Manipur then she may not only won the election but might have sweep the State as well.

But the big headline grabber of this "Mid Term Election" was UP Election, as for the first time in History out of 403 seats, BJP + able to win 324 seats which is a kind of single largest victory ever. This is also a first time when BJP won UttarPradesh and Uttarakhand after a State split, in Uttarakhand as well BJP able to win 57 seats out of 70 which is again a record as no party till now able to cross more then 36 seats. Indeed results gone against Harish Rawat and his Party who literally was facing leadership crisis, many intellectuals may have giving reasons for this defeat but the fact which matter is that Harish Rawat claimed the Government when himself was overshadowed in a party and he was very close to leave Congress who later fulfilled his wish but lost other leaders from the party. 

When I wrote "Why winning in ground is so crucial to win Assembly Election !!", I specifically stress on a point that Elections can't be fought in space, without knowing ground reality and sensing the direction of wind if parties jumped to fight elections with too much of dependency on Strategic Manager who're basically a management company and nothing else then they will be Knocked Out straight away, Today's voters are changing they wants Food, Employment, Education, Home, they less care about if someone trying to define the new logic of war, want history to be written in a new way, all these are a secondary issues for many and may not be important for most of the people in India, they want basic necessity to be filled prior to all. Tats what this election defines the most, no matter whatever the party is if leadership talking about ground's issue then they will be accepted.

This particular election was also a eye opener for Media who tries to change the mindset of a voter by manipulating and twisting news, even if the Media was not allowed then Social Media was used. During Exit Polls many Intellectuals was busy making their favorite party's Government. Most of the Studio veterans was claiming to have a visit in the polling States and shared their observation in TV less then 48 hours from the Election Results but they must have hide the fact that their focus to cover the State was limited to Party offices and few lanes and not more then that. I believe that soon Exit Polls will be known as more subjective and nothing in reality, it already lost the confidence years ago. It will be consider like playing a democratic game in paper because in Ground actual vote can't be disclose and shouldn't be disclose and tats why its a math for psephologist to be solve and tats why its not a everyone's cup of tea. 

This mandate can't be consider against any party nor to favor any face, whosoever talking about ground zero and displays the strong leadership has won. Its not a rocket science for anyone to know who is best for the State, party who's unitedly standing or a party who have a internal problems to sought out !! I believe any secular party can form Government anytime post Elections or Post forming Government as well because they always be united for 1 thing no matter their common minimum program matches or not. Forming a alliance and tat too before Election and launching Manifesto post 1 or 2 phases doesn't matter enough because if faces are staggering just before the election then what would be the fate after mandate. This election is also against generic politics as candidates are considered as Indian first rather then from some community, this shows the clear picture of voters and the pattern of election which is completely changing. Its a new era of politics and voters are not hesitate to take a stand either in the favor or against, tats why future of democracy going to be more bigger and better and as a festival it will be more sweeter then ever before.  

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